FASHION'S FUTURE

America’s recent fashion history has seen a relentless tilt to the west – of people, ideas, commerce, and even trend power. New York and Los Angeles are the twin poles of U.S. fashion, but very different ones. For most of the last twenty years, L.A. has been the brainier, sexier, trendier of the two: its entrepreneurs and its innovations, its fads and foibles, its marvelous clutter of jeans, activewear, swimwear, surfwear, jeans, etc have spread around the world. New York, still the bastion and darling of the fashion press, has trailed behind in the world of innovation; its cliché has been a conservative applause to the same small group of ‘elite’ names. But twins can change places. Is that happening now?

It is easy to find evidence that California style is in a funk. The banks have stopped funding creativity; they certainly are not taking any chances in this squirrelly economy – and the buyers, from the large retailers and specialty store chains alike, cannot afford to place their bets with new resources that might not be able to deliver when promised. The retailers’ lines of credit depend on-time delivery, complete, saleable damage-free shipments, with accurate documents now demanded by technical and governmental requirements.

Back in the golden age of the 1960s and 70s, our community offered those ‘up-and-comers’ a shot at the American dream – not just for the mouth-y high-fliers who gave great parties. There was a complete cross section of an industry cluster; with an enviable infrastructure. These days, more than 87% of the $39 billion shipped, in apparel and textile finished products, are made elsewhere. Every year, more companies leave the business than enter it.

Not only that, but most analysts and poll-takers rank Los Angeles AND California the very worst region to do business in, for each of the past four years. Add to that, a very laissez-faire attitude toward the industry by our public officials and our uber-industry groups, with no concern for the over-riding issues that affect our business, and the 100,000 plus people employed in it.

By contrast, New York’s legislators understand the importance of their fashion industry, and have tried to revive the trend of encroaching real estate in their once-flourishing ‘garment district’. A valiant effort is underway; we’ll see how it plays out.

Meanwhile, it has never paid to bet against an industry with as many inventive people as we have here. Even if California is in the dumps, it still boasts an unequalled array of sunrise start-ups, and the most agile venture-capital entrepreneurs on the fashion planet. Our technology providers are telling us that they are (strangely) seeing more and more start-ups – with more creative products, and more original ideas. Additionally, the smart business operators are examining the way they do business; being much more price conscious, cross training their personnel, analyzing every SKU, investing in technology, etc. The businesses surviving during these economic tough times will only emerge stronger and leaner, with more exciting product.

The California fashion industry has an awesome ability to reinvent itself – as it did when everything stopped right after 9/11.

Perhaps this new ‘crisis’ brought about by the troubled assets of our largest lender will promote what the politicians call ‘structural reform’. The truth is that we can learn from other apparel production centers and other business models. There is no perfect model; it is our genius to have 7000 companies competing to find out what works best. The relentless competition of clever new firms from San Diego to San Francisco will pull our west coast fashion industry out of its current gloom. All the world still wants the ‘California look’ – whatever that is!